On Feb. 28, 2026, another expansion of American military force abroad under President Trump ensued. The United States and Israel jointly launched strikes on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. In response, Iran attacked Israel and the U.S.-allied states in the Gulf; fighting has now spread to Lebanon.
Before getting elected, President Trump promised two things. Firstly, in his presidential victory speech, Trump said, “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars.” Specifically regarding Iran, Vice President JD Vance had even admitted, “Our interests, I think very much, is in not going to war with Iran.” There lies an irony in the contrast between the promise to end wars and the reality of initiating them — against our country’s interests, if Vance’s 2024 words are to be taken seriously.
And they should be taken seriously. The vice president insists today that there is “no chance” of a drawn-out war in Iran. Even if the conflict is short-lived, however, Trump still breaks a second campaign promise, which is affordability for Americans. The president has made numerous economic promises, from bringing down the prices of goods to slashing energy costs. The war in Iran, however, will have significant long-term economic costs.
Just one week of the war cost $11.3 billion, and American taxpayers will be the ones to pay. Yet, they don’t receive any benefits from the war, as they will suffer both directly and indirectly. Most visibly, the oil price shock triggered by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused gas prices to soar. There has been a 32 percent price surge over three weeks, and the average U.S. household will therefore have to spend an additional $740 million on gas. Additionally, the blockade will restrain payroll growth by 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year, with leisure and hospitality industries being the most severely impacted.
Americans will not feel it yet, but the indirect impacts could prove even more detrimental. A leading economist, Mohamed El-Erian, warns that the war has reached a critical threshold as both sides have begun attacking critical energy infrastructure. Once considered temporary oil-supply disruptions are now expected to persist for the medium term, and it is now believed that this is one of the biggest oil supply disruptions in history. Yet, oil is not the only supply chain being affected. Helium, pharmaceutical drugs, fertilizer, and other materials are also facing disturbances that could impair economies around the globe. The result of this economic strain and supply-chain chaos? El-Erian further cautions that the chances of a U.S. recession have risen to 35 percent. Former White House energy advisor Bob McNally also notes that “A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a guaranteed global recession.”
These costs are supposed to be deemed worthwhile for the greater good: preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But is this war actually going to stop Iran’s nuclear program? Of course, the strikes may have temporarily delayed its progress. However, the Director of Military Analysis for the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities believes the conflict will only motivate Iran to further pursue nuclear weapons after the war, as they would want to ensure regime survival after being attacked twice during negotiations. The situation in Iran has also made President Kim Jong Un of North Korea adamant that they hold onto their nuclear weapons, as he has even said that the “present situation clearly proves” that North Korea made the right decision in maintaining its nuclear arsenal.
So what are we gaining from this war? Lost trust in President Trump’s campaign promises, rising costs for American families, and risks of recession, all for weakened leverage in a case for nuclear deterrence. Ultimately, the war in Iran delivers the opposite of what it promised.
The Zeitgeist aims to publish ideas worth discussing. The views presented are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board.
