The political atmosphere in the U.S. and Europe is moving in opposite directions. With the American midterms about a month away, Democrats are fired up by a wave of progressive newcomers. Meanwhile, a string of European elections has been pushing voters toward the far right. Although both movements come from a similar feeling that the people in charge aren’t fixing any problems, voters are still ending up in opposite places.
Take Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s Democratic Socialist mayor. A September Quinnipiac poll found 46 percent of likely New York voters view him favorably and 36 percent unfavorably, a better spread than Gov. Hochul’s. Meanwhile, Trump sat at 30 percent favorable and 63 percent unfavorable in the state. Mamdani isn’t universally loved, and a March Marist poll had his approval rating at 48 percent, below Eric Adams at the same point in his term. But his appeal, especially with younger voters, is easy to see. He campaigned on grocery prices, taxes, and making every borough feel included, and he’s known for responding quickly to people’s requests. At a time when so much of national politics runs on division, including the targeting of immigrants, his inclusive tone feels refreshing. His numbers suggest voters are open to it.
He’s far from alone. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit-area health official, narrowly beat Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic Senate primary by less than a point. He backs Medicare for All but calls himself a capitalist, not a socialist. His message is that Trump’s actions work against everyday people and that politics should move closer to them. In Colorado, 29-year-old labor organizer Melat Kiros beat a 29-year incumbent, Rep. Diana DeGette. In Maine, fifth-generation logger Troy Jackson is now the Democratic nominee in the Senate race. One count in May found progressives winning over 60 percent of Democratic primaries so far this year.
What they all focus on is affordability: groceries, housing, healthcare, public schools. They say that Trump’s tariffs and immigration enforcement make life harder for ordinary people, while the administration and its supporters say the opposite. Right now, voters seem more convinced by the first argument. One recent polling average has Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 49.2 percent to 44.0 percent, with about a 79 percent chance of winning the House.
In Europe, an opposite wave of far-right appreciation seems to be growing. On September 6, Germany’s AfD, a far-right party, won Saxon-Anhalt with 43.8 percent of the vote, 23 points more than in 2021. They are known for their anti-immigration, anti-Islam, and heavy nationalistic values, as well as criticism of the EU’s involvement in the country’s politics. Nationally, the AfD is polling first.
In France, an Odoxa poll had National Rally’s Jordan Bardella beating Édouard Philippe 52 percent to 48 percent in a 2027 runoff. The National Rally is a far-right party, focusing heavily on strict immigration controls, cuts to legal immigration, economic nationalism, and a “France First” approach. In Slovenia, Janez Janša of the right-wing SDS returned as prime minister in May after a near-tie election.
Immigration is one of the biggest drivers of political decisions in Europe. Analysts point to the migration wave after 2015 and falling trust in institutions. The Sweden Democrats made migration, crime, and national identity central to their campaign, even though they lost votes in September, a first for the party.
In America, that alternative to the current economic and political problems is the Democratic Party with a growing progressive wing, one that talks about groceries, housing, and healthcare. In Europe, it’s often a far-right party that links the same economic frustration to immigration and national identity. Part of the reason for people favouring the Democrats may be that the U.S. has two parties, so anger gets channeled into primaries, where insurgents like El-Sayed and Kiros can take over an existing party. In Europe’s multiparty systems, newer parties like the AfD have had years to build up outside the establishment, which makes them the clear outsider option. Either way, the pattern is similar: when people feel the system isn’t working for them, they look for the loudest alternative. Right now, that looks very different depending on which side of the Atlantic you’re on.
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