Last week, the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, stated that he would be prepared for Britain to “go all the way” on a reimagined relationship with the European Union. At the Labour Party’s annual conference, he gave a series of interviews outlining the direction he wanted to take the country. He spoke about the costs of Brexit, describing it as having done “more harm than good.” His comments could not have come at a more timely moment for the U.K. and are laying the foundation for a significant change, given the U.K.’s economy is starting to look stagnant.
Talking about Brexit in the U.K. is a political taboo. It’s divisive, off-putting, and people are tired of hearing about it, but it’s exactly what has led the U.K. into the situation in which it finds itself; Research from the Financial Times says that leaving the E.U. has caused an estimated six to eight percent potential GDP loss between 2016 and 2022. This has cost the government around £40B in annual tax revenue, and this number will only increase as the two economies diverge. Additionally, the E.U. is the U.K.’s largest trading partner, so access to the E.U.’s single market and customs union will allow British businesses to increase trade intensity and lower costs for importers. Economic growth has been at the center of Labour’s ‘Plan for Change,’ and this is a way they can actually follow through.
It is also not unrealistic to imagine the U.K. returning to the E.U. under the same deal which it had previously had, essentially reversing Brexit. The E.U. has been receptive to the idea of a “Breturn,” but with the E.U., everything is up for negotiation. However, the E.U. does benefit from the U.K. rejoining; this is not just one-sided for the U.K.
A push for Britain to rejoin the E.U. is also politically advantageous for Burnham. Due to the fact that currently, if a general election were to be held, the Labour Party would see its current landslide majority reduced to less than the 326 seats they need for a majority in Parliament, according to polling done by Electoral Calculus. Though this is an improvement for Labour since Starmer’s premiership, there is still a risk of a Reform-Conservative coalition in 2029. So a move to rejoin the E.U. therefore becomes an opportunity to attack this potential coalition.
First, it can expose the failures of leaving the E.U. and connect Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to his original political project: Brexit. Farage made his name in British politics through Brexit, which the U.K. now sees as a failure. YouGov polling shows that 59 percent of Britons would support rejoining the E.U. So reminding the public of how he helped cause Brexit would help tarnish his political reputation and add to the mounting criticism of Farage, owing to his many scandals and personal popularity decline. These scandals have led to his party, Reform U.K., facing its worst polling position in 19 months. So, a Labour solution to the economic fallout of Brexit could help push these numbers even lower.
A Brexit-focused election would also put the Conservatives in a tough position. Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch has held firm on her opposition to any moves that pull the U.K/ closer to the E.U., demonstrated by her opposing the Erasmus+ scheme; however, this puts her at odds with some of the public she needs to win back. While it might seem that their largest electoral threat comes from Reform, the Conservatives lost a lot of the south of England to the pro-E.U. Liberal Democrats. This suggests that Conservatives need to start adjusting their position on Brexit if they hope to win back voters in the southern part of the country who are more than likely to be pro-E.U.. This will be especially significant if a general election unfolds where Brexit is again brought to the forefront of U.K. politics.
The earlier YouGov poll also found that a larger 73 percent of the public would support a closer relationship without rejoining the E.U., single market, or customs union. With both the Conservatives and Reform out of step with the public on this issue and with 67 percent of the British public feeling like the U.K. is going in the wrong economic direction, this is the policy issue the Labour Party needs to focus on for the 2029 General Election and might be the economic lifeline that the U.K. economy needs.
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