The Republican Party has dug itself into a hole. Over the last decade, the GOP has surrendered its traditional base — educated, upper-income, white, suburban voters — for a foothold with the working class. This political realignment was fueled primarily by Trump’s embrace of anti-establishment, populist rhetoric. The salience of Trumpism among the GOP’s new base, along with the president’s cult of personality, gives Democrats an advantage in elections without Trump on the ballot.
Congressional Republicans already suffered the consequences of Trumpism twice — in the Trump-era midterms of 2018 and 2022. In 2018, amid a booming pre-COVID economy, Democrats won the nationwide congressional vote by over eight percentage points. And 2022 saw Republicans sharply underperform, barely winning the House and losing a seat in the Senate despite President Biden’s deep unpopularity.
Now, with sky-high gas prices caused by a deeply unpopular war in Iran, Democrats are poised for their largest victory in recent memory.
Trump made major inroads among minority voters in the 2024 election. Black men, non-White voters without a college degree, and (most critically) Latinos all fueled Trump’s political comeback. These trends are set to reverse themselves in 2026, partially due to Trump’s perceived failure to deliver on his promise to fix Biden-era affordability issues.
All the while, Trump’s core base seems like it will sit this election out — just as many did in 2022. Many archetypal (white, working-class) three-time Trump voters are discouraged by the president’s failure to end the war in Ukraine, his new war in Iran, and the resulting shock to gas prices. His broken promises — such as to end the Ukraine war on “day one” and address the cost of living crisis — killed their enthusiasm to vote. If the Trump base stays home, Democrats can win in a landslide without changing many minds.
Finally, Democrats’ gains among primarily white, upper-income, suburban voters are likely to hold steady. While these groups are impacted less by high gas prices and Trump’s trade war, they also have little reason to begin supporting Republicans. As a result, states such as Minnesota and areas like Long Island show disappointing poll numbers for Democrats.
But Democrats are making up for stagnation in their traditional territory with seismic gains in the South. Partially fueled by excellent candidate recruiting, and partially by a perfect demographic storm, Democrats are cruising to comfortable victories in Georgia and North Carolina’s Senate races. Democratic Senate candidates are set to fall short of victory, but run up the numbers in South Carolina, Mississippi, and Louisiana. And the pièce de résistance: James Talarico remains a narrow favorite in Texas.
Beyond 2026, the post-Trump Republican Party will struggle to retain the coalition he created. Trump’s absence will create a leadership vacuum at the heart of the GOP, causing low-engagement voters energized by his charisma and popular appeal to stay home. No matter what, the next presidential election will be challenging for the eventual Republican nominee.
Still, Democrats cannot rely on the post-Trump scramble to win office. Despite their current electoral prospects, the Democratic Party is still unpopular. To extend their present fortunes past the midterms, Democrats across the country must double down on their affordability agenda.
The Democrats — the party that passed Social Security, fought the War on Poverty, and created America’s public health insurance programs — must solidify itself as the Party of Affordability. The affordability-focused rhetoric popularized by Zohran Mamdani’s 2025 campaign for mayor, but also used by moderate Democrats like Abigail Spanberger in her run for Virginia’s governorship, has proven effective at winning back core constituencies that moved towards Trump in 2024.
In the long term, affordability issues provide an opportunity to win over voters Trump flipped way back in 2016. If Democrats not only become the Party of Affordability rhetorically but also practically through real policy change, they could make inroads among even white working-class voters. The Rust Belt-based bloc of Obama 2012 to Trump 2016 voters is not immovable. Replacing the Democratic Party’s reputation for inflation, wokeness, and elitism with policy measures that improve affordability would improve its standing. Most crucially, this change would shine the spotlight away from made-up cultural issues, and onto real policy that matters.
Democrats cannot pass up this opportunity. Failing to deliver on affordability not only would harm the party politically but also risk further degradation of America’s democratic institutions. Even with Trump out of the picture, the root causes that led to his rise still remain.
The nativism and bigotry that fed fuel to Trump’s flame will not disappear any time soon. But the root economic and political causes of Trumpism can be alleviated by an ambitious, progressive federal government. Americans are still dissatisfied with our out-of-touch political system, mired in gridlock and dysfunction. Wealth inequality is still at an all-time high, as most people’s wages stagnate. These factors created the perfect storm for demagoguery, and Trump capitalized on it.
Unless the underlying discontent that spawned Trumpism is addressed, someone else will eventually fill the cavity he leaves behind. Can American democracy survive that?
The Zeitgeist aims to publish ideas worth discussing. The views presented are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board.
