We’ve Won. What’s Next?

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Soldiers from the Syrian Democratic Forces flash the “V” for victory sign.
Photo courtesy of CNN.

At last, the international coalition declared the defeat of the Islamic State.

Last Saturday, the Syrian Democratic Forces officially announced the total elimination of the Islamic State’s control over its last territory, Baghouz. While we rejoice over this landmark, historic victory over the hard-fought war, we now face new challenges that will determine the future of those affected by the Islamic State.

We shouldn’t forget that the Islamic State still has followers. Although now it doesn’t occupy any territory, its followers and armed militants are still dispersed over the Middle East including both Syria and Iraq. It also still has a significant online presence. While the Islamic State has become decentralized and less organized, the regional instability may trigger consolidation of extremists in future, especially after U.S. forces withdraw from Syria.

Second, the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is believed to still be alive. In 2014, the Islamic State self-declared itself as a caliphate, a Muslim form of government, with al-Baghdadi as its caliph—leader. The U.S. has placed a $25 million price on his head. As long as al-Baghdadi is alive, the international community cannot be reasonably sure that extremists will not grow in large numbers again.

Furthermore, the future of the Kurdish people remains unclear. Even though they made up a significant portion of the forces fighting against the Islamic State and spearheaded countless battles, their relationships with Turkey and Iran are still strenuous: the Kurdish people’s efforts to attain sovereignty and international recognition have conflicted with others’ nationalist interests in the region. While the Kurdish people have historically cooperated with the U.S. both in Iraq and Syria, it seems unlikely that the U.S. will commit to openly supporting Kurdish sovereignty, as president Trump announced that the U.S. troops will withdraw from Syria. Without the protection from the U.S. in the region, the Kurdish people remain extremely vulnerable.

Victory is delightful, but there is more work to be done for a better future. Without properly handling the aftermath, tougher troubles will arise, costing us more in the long run.

Jaywon Choi